The end of 2024 was a contentious one for Canadian politics after Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced her resignation on December 16, just hours before she was scheduled to deliver the fall economic statement.
The rollercoaster ride continued in early January when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign as leader of the Liberal party and the country on January 6, 2025. In his resignation speech, Trudeau announced parliament would be prorogued until March 24, giving the Liberal party time to select a new leader as Canada enters another election year.
We’ve since learned the leadership vote will conclude on March 9, 2025, with a new Liberal leader announced that day. The entrance fee for a candidate to join the leadership race is $350,000, and contestants have until January 23 to declare their participation in the race.
On Thursday, January 16, former Bank of Canada manager Mark Carney officially launched his campaign to become the next Liberal leader, vowing to build the fastest-growing economy in the G7 if elected. More names are set to enter the race as March 9 approaches.
What does proroguing parliament do?
Prorogation differs from a standard recess or adjournment, which specifies a temporary break that does not formally end the current session of Parliament, or the dissolution of parliament, which may occur as the result of a non-confidence vote from opposing parties and automatically triggers an election.
By contrast, proroguing parliament requires the approval of the Governor General and allows the government to remain in power while halting all parliamentary activity — including existing bills, committee work, studies and investigations. This also means confidence votes cannot be held in the House of Commons, effectively delaying the possibility of a non-confidence vote until the House returns at the end of March.
As a minority government — which occurs when the governing party does not win the majority of seats in a general election — the Liberal party has relied on the support of other parties to stay in power.
As of December 2024, the Liberal government had been subject to three non-confidence votes posed by the Conservative party. One took place in September and another in October — both times, the Liberal party was backed by the Bloc Quebecois and NDP and the votes did not pass. The third took place in December, where the Liberal party held on by 28 votes, maintaining the support of the NDP despite leader Jagmeet Singh’s decision to terminate the supply-and-confidence agreement made with the Liberal government in September. The agreement, which had been in place since March 2022, outlined the NDP’s commitment to supporting the Liberal government on confidence votes in exchange for legislative commitments on NDP priorities.
Prior to Trudeau’s announcement to prorogue earlier this month, the Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois and NDP parties all indicated their intention to dissolve the Liberal government through a non-confidence vote in early 2025 — a vote that now must wait until the return of Parliament on March 24.
International pressures cause concern for government and Canadians amid parliamentary pause
President-elect Donald Trump will take office Monday, January 20, officially beginning his term as the 47th President of the United States.
During his campaign, Trump announced his plans to impose tariffs on all products imported into the United States from Canada and Mexico as one of his first executive orders on inauguration day. Following his election in November, Trump specified tariffs as high as 25 per cent, with the goal of promoting American products and pressuring neighbouring countries to increase border security and efforts to curb migration and drug trafficking.
Amid rising concerns of impending tariffs, Trump has also been publicly referencing Canada as the 51st state. He has issued several comments initially dismissed as a bad joke, but that are becoming increasingly unsettling for Canadians as he announced the potential to use “economic force” to “get rid of the artificially drawn line” between the two nations.
This has caused significant unrest among Canadian leaders as they consider the far-reaching implications of such a measure on our domestic economy, given the U.S. accounts for approximately 75 per cent of all Canadian exports. According to Andreas Schotter, Ivey professor of general management and international business, damage to the Canadian economy as a result of 25 per cent tariffs may result in up to 1.5 million job losses, severe supply chain disruptions and more than a 2.4 per cent shrink in national GDP, all of which will contribute to higher inflation and greater affordability issues for Canadians.
Schotter also highlighted the tariffs are unlikely to significantly benefit American consumers, who will face higher prices for goods and services reliant on Canadian imports. This includes industries such as lumber and automotive, which will directly impact the cost of housing and vehicles in the U.S.
These concerns have been further amplified by Trudeau’s decision to prorogue.
“I don’t think a leadership change could come at a worse moment in our bilateral relationship,” Fen Osler Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa and co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations, told The Canadian Press. “We are staring down the barrel of a gun with Donald Trump’s threats to impose 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The key question obviously is: Who speaks for Canada?”
Canadian citizens have expressed their concerns as well, and two in particular — David MacKinnon and Aris Lavranos — are currently working with the Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms to legally challenge the prorogue. The application, submitted on Tuesday, January 7, argues that the decision to prorogue parliament is “incorrect, unreasonable or both”, and seeks to have it set aside. The lawsuit argues that the decision to prorogue is unjustified and hampers the ability of Parliament to address pressing matters, such as the impending tariffs, with the self-interested goal of avoiding a confidence vote.
Provincial leaders have also spoken out following Trudeau’s announcement, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford asking the prime minister to remain focused on the U.S. tariffs issue and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith urging all federal parties and MPs to “force an election at the earliest available opportunity.” Smith emphasized the importance of having a prime minister with a clear mandate to negotiate with the incoming U.S. administration and questioned the Liberal party’s choice to place internal political issues ahead of the Canadian people during such a critical time.
Premier Smith also met directly with Donald Trump at his resort in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, the weekend of January 11 to discuss the tariffs and promote Alberta oil as a way to provide the U.S. with affordable energy.
British Columbia Premier David Eby is among the Canadian leaders who plan to travel to Washington to assume the leadership role in tariff discussions with the Trump administration.
“Given the state of the federal government currently, the leadership on this file has to come from the premiers across Canada, and so we’re going to continue doing that work,” he said.
What does this mean for the next election?
Canada’s next federal election is currently scheduled to take place on or before October 25, 2025, as outlined by the Canada Elections Act, which specifies a general election must be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth year following the previous election.
However, when the prorogue ends on March 24, a new parliamentary session will begin, leading to an immediate confidence vote. If the House expresses non-confidence in the new Liberal leader, which is probable given the position of the NDP, Conservative and Bloc Quebecois parties, they are expected to resign or seek the dissolution of parliament, triggering a federal election.
Canadian election rules specify a campaign must be between 37 and 51 days — meaning if the Liberal government is dissolved at the end of March, an election could take place as early as May.
Canada Powered by Women’s place in the changing political landscape
Whenever the federal election takes place, Canada Powered by Women will amplify the voice of engaged women related to the economy, energy security and the environment. CPW will be conducting new national research in the coming weeks to ask women about their priorities when it comes to voting and to what extent a position or policy influences their decision.
“Advocating on behalf of women, their perspectives and needs for sound energy policy that facilitates our standard of living, potential as country and opportunity to lead globally, is more critical than ever,” says Tracey Bodnarchuk, CEO of CPW.
“Through our research, we will continue to ask women what they think and share their positions with policymakers, media and the public. We will share our new research highlighting engaged women’s priorities during the upcoming election cycle in all our channels and upcoming speaking engagements across Canada.”
CPW’s ability to influence energy policy is grounded in what engaged women tell us. We will continue to have bold conversations and provide our readers with timely updates on the energy platforms of all parties as we approach a federal election.